Ah. Spa. Perhaps my favorite track on the calendar to drive... in a racing sim. Is there anything better than flat out through Eau Rouge in a F2004? I contend that there is not!

Let's start with the unquantifiables for this race. Ferrari is bringing more upgrades, apparently. Though the only concrete change I've seen is the removal of their exhaust wing and a revamped "Macarena" wing. Two changes that will reduce downforce and increase top speed - of critical performance at Spa. However, it also feels like a recipe for chaos a la Max Verstappen's luck with the concept.

Speaking of Max, the drama around him this weekend will bring some... well drama. Inevitably, Martin Brundle and JPM will ask him or put questions out into the ether about what he will do next year, and then get mad that he keeps talking about it. It will also probably create some unnatural energy at Red Bull, perhaps making them make decisions that they normally wouldn't do. This of course, could go either way for them.

Mercedes could either face more reliability issues, or just continue to do their best Ferrari impression on the pit wall. If Hamilton does win as projected, George MUST come in second to keep his position in the standings. Since Hamilton has won here 5 times, the most of any modern driver - it's crucial Mercedes does everything right here. Worse still, if George DNF's or finishes out of the points it will put him solidly in 3rd place. If Kimi DNF's and Hamilton wins, then this championship swing will have been wild considering the way the season started.

Similarly, if Max somehow pulls out a win - and he's won here 3 times, second to Hamilton - and McLaren falls apart, he could leap frog both drivers for fifth place.

Then you have the rest of the field. I think the biggest opportunity for these numbers to be wrong will be with Hadjar. His record this season doesn't seem to reflect what his position shows in the prediction, but is probably highly determined by whatever DNF chaos ensues in the race.

Ferrari is really starting to eat into Merc's lead, doubling their likelihood to win after Charles' win, which also saw him fly by Norris for P4. Hamilton's odds improved slightly, but the real hit here is Merc drivers swapping places with Kimi and George getting neck and neck.